Venezuelan elections

Last weekend, there were elections in Venezuela for the National Assembly. Five parties that opposed President Hugo Chávez boycotted the elections and withdrew for the ballot, arguing lack of trust in the electoral process and in the independence of the electoral authority. The chief of the European Union mission, Jose Albino Silva, said observers were "surprised" when the opposition parties withdrew, as their main complaint was addressed and the provided no new reasons for their withdrawl. He added, audits showed vote results and voting machines were "clearly reliable".

Abstention rates were however quite high (~75%). Opposition parties argue this demonstrates a strong opposition to Chávez. But this type of argument is pure rhetoric. They did not provide an option for voters wanting to oppose Chávez, and cannot now legitimately claim the 'silent majority' vote. Press worldwide made this the most important result of the election, and thus assumed their role in backing the Chávez opposition.

However, abstention is a complex factor. While it certainly is an indicator of a lack of commitment to the electoral process, it can hardly be automatically translated into any one single political viewpoint.

One should also place this level of abstention in Venezuela into context, particularly as to what it might mean regarding support for Chávez.

• Recall referedum of 15th Aug, 2004, an abstention rate of ~30,08%
• Local elections in Dec/2000, an abstention rate of ~77%
• Elections that same year, in July, for the National Assembly, Governors and the President, had an absention level if ~44%. Chávez won the presidential elections with
  
• Referendum of 16 December 1999, abstention rate of 55,6%
• Elections for the Constitutional Assembly, abstention rate of 53,8%
  
• Referendum of 25 of Abril 1998, abstention rate of 62%
• Presidential elections 6/Dec 1998, abstention rate of 36,6%
• Local elections in 1995, abstention rate of ~54%
• Presidential and Congressional elections in 1993, abstention rate of 39%
• Local elections in 1992, abstention rate of 50,7%

Data from the Nacional Electoral Commission (CNE) of Venezuela

One can clearly see from these data that abstention rates vary, but tend to be high. Rates were lowest when there were presidential elections, which is not surprising for a presidential system, where the president is the head of government. It also reinforces Chávez legitimacy as president, so often undermined by the opposition and media. He was elected with 56,20% in the 1993 elections, and 59,75% in the 2000 elections (see CNE data), a clear majority the George W. Bush never achieved. His slim majority in 2004 did not however keep him from claiming a political mandate. Likewise, the referendum in 1999 represented resounding victory of Chávez's political program, with 87,75% voting for the new constitution. The recall referendum of 2004, the most recent challenge to Chávez's legitimacy, proved a confortable defeat of his recall (59% against), with low abstention (30%).

One need recognize that voter also affects western, first-world, democracies. In the 2004 elections for the European Parliment, the EU average abstention rate was 54.5%, reaching rates of participation as low as 16.96% (in Slovakia) or 20.87% in Poland. These are not just values of recent members. In 1999, the UK only 24% of voters participated in the EP elections.

Voter turnout in the US is hardly remarkable either. Since 1972, it has fluctuated around 55%, as a percent of eligible voters (it is lower if one uses Voter Age Population - VAP), although there was a marked turnout increase in the 2004 elections (61%). But it was merely 39,3% in the 1998 midterm elections.

Thus, while it is a matter of concern that abstention rates were high in these last elections it can hardly be concluded that this represents any large opposition to Chávez. Rather it is part of a larger problem, dealt with in many democracies, with the electoral ballot system. One for which there is no single solution, and there is not single cause.